45% think a recession is ahead
According to a report released today by JPMorgan Chase, business executives in the US hold varying opinions on the possibility of a recession this year, despite ongoing macroeconomic challenges. The study found that 45% of business leaders expect a recession to occur before the end of the year or believe that the economy is already in one. On the other hand, 36% do not anticipate a recession in 2023, and 20% are uncertain about its likelihood.
Ginger Chambless, the head of research at JPMorgan Chase’s commercial banking, stated, “The US economy has experienced a stronger start to 2023 than expected, thanks to the resilience of consumer spending and other positive factors. These factors have influenced business leaders’ confidence regarding the occurrence of a recession this year. However, businesses continue to face persistent challenges such as inflation, interest rates, and labor shortages. In this uncertain economic environment, it is crucial for leaders to position their companies for stability by maintaining strong liquidity and adequate cash balances.”
Although most business leaders maintain a pessimistic or neutral economic outlook, the report indicates a slight increase in optimism for the global and national economies since the beginning of 2023:
National economy: The percentage of business leaders expressing pessimism about the national economy decreased from 43% to 37% compared to the start of the year. Furthermore, 29% now hold a bullish outlook on the national economy, marking an increase from 22% six months ago.
Global economy: Pessimism among business leaders regarding the global economy for the upcoming year dropped from 60% to 39%, while 46% maintain a neutral outlook. Only 15% of respondents are optimistic about the global economy, up from 8% six months ago.
In the meantime, 67% of business executives maintain confidence in their company’s performance for the next year.