Tag: Employment

US hiring remains strong despite talent shortages

According to the Q2 ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, the global demand for talent remains strong despite cooling in some regions. The survey, which polled over 38,000 employers in 41 countries and territories, found that the Net Employment Outlook stands at +30% in the U.S., up 1% from last quarter but down 5% from last year. North America has the highest hiring expectations among all world regions, with the IT industry showing the most optimistic outlook (+34%), followed by Communication Services (+30%) and Financials & Real Estate (+29%).

The survey also found that the global talent shortage continues to grow, with 78% of employers in IT reporting challenges hiring. However, the survey suggests that workers who have been laid off in recent reductions will soon be reabsorbed into the market.

Despite the robust hiring outlook, employers remain cautious due to “Pandemic Paranoia,” with many holding onto and hiring business-critical talent. The concentration of demand in real-time data is reflected in the survey, with IT leading the way in hiring plans despite layoffs dominating the headlines. Workers with in-demand tech and soft skills will find themselves in high demand, and the need to reskill for tomorrow’s jobs remains urgent as talent shortages grow.

In North America, employers in the U.S. (+30%) report a moderate increase (+1) in their outlooks compared to last quarter. However, employers in Canada (-6%) report a decrease, while outlooks in Puerto Rico remain unchanged (+26%). Both the U.S. and Canada expect weaker hiring compared to intentions year-over-year, with the U.S. down 5% and Canada down 10%.

Becky Frankiewicz, ManpowerGroup, North America, President and Chief Commercial Officer commented: “This labor market continues to defy signs of economic gravity with another robust hiring Outlook for the quarter ahead. Employers are still impacted by Pandemic Paranoia – they remember how long it took to bring workers back and are holding onto and hiring business critical talent. We’re still seeing concentration of demand in our real-time data, and this survey reflects concentration too, with IT leading the way in hiring plans despite layoffs dominating the headlines. Workers with in-demand tech and soft skills will find themselves in high demand and the need to re-skill today for tomorrow’s jobs remains urgent as talent shortages grow.”

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52% of all employment is done by key workers

A new report by the International Labour Organization (ILO) has called for countries to improve the working conditions and earnings of key workers who were essential during the COVID-19 crisis. The report, World Employment and Social Outlook 2023: The value of essential work, highlights the extent to which economies and societies depend on key workers, yet they are undervalued.

Key workers can be found in eight main occupational groups and in the 90 countries where data was available, 52% of all employment is done by key workers. However, on average, key workers earn 26% less than other employees, with 29% of them being low paid. The report recommends greater investment in physical infrastructure, productive capacity, and human resources of key sectors, among other recommendations, to ensure the continuity of essential services during future pandemics or other shocks.

Gilbert F. Houngbo, ILO Director-General commented: “Healthcare workers, supermarket cashiers, delivery workers, postal workers, seafarers, cleaners, and others supplying food and necessities continued to perform their jobs, day in and day out, even at the height of the pandemic, often at great personal risk. Valuing key workers means ensuring that they receive adequate pay and work in good conditions. Decent work is an objective for all workers but it is particularly critical for key workers, who provide vital necessities and services both in good times and bad.”

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Average regular pay growth for the private sector was 7%

UK employment rates continue to show modest growth, with the employment rate rising 0.1% to 75.7% between November 2022 and January 2023. The increase in employment was mainly driven by part-time employees and self-employed workers, according to the latest report from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The timeliest estimate of payrolled employees also showed an increase of 98,000 in February 2023 compared to January 2023, bringing the total to 30.0 million. However, the unemployment rate remained largely unchanged at 3.7% during the same period. The number of people who have been unemployed for over 12 months saw a slight increase in the latest three-month period.

Economic inactivity, on the other hand, decreased by 0.2% to 21.3% in November 2022 to January 2023. This was driven by people aged 16 to 24 years, and by people who are inactive because they are students or retired.

However, the estimated number of vacancies fell by 51,000 on the quarter to 1,124,000 in December 2022 to February 2023. This marks the eighth consecutive period of declining vacancies and reflects uncertainty across industries, as respondents continue to cite economic pressures as a factor in holding back recruitment.

The report also showed growth in average total pay (including bonuses) of 5.7%, while growth in regular pay (excluding bonuses) was 6.5% among employees in November 2022 to January 2023. Average regular pay growth for the private sector was 7.0%, compared to 4.8% for the public sector. However, in real terms, growth in total and regular pay fell by 3.2% and 2.4%, respectively, after adjusting for inflation.

Labour disputes also saw a decline, with only 220,000 working days lost in January 2023, compared to 822,000 in December 2022. Meanwhile, workforce jobs rose by 211,000 on the quarter to a new record high of 36.4 million, with six of the 20 industry sectors reaching record high levels in December 2022.

Overall, the latest report from the ONS indicates a mixed picture of the UK’s labour market, with modest employment growth and declining vacancies but still some uncertainty across industries.

Lauren Thomas, Glassdoor Economist commented: “Wage growth may be hitting record highs but this is not being felt in workers’ pockets. Glassdoor’s data shows discussion around inflation and the cost of living is up 171% year-on-year. Employers need to consider how they can help their workforce through this difficult period – whether that’s through pay rises, other benefits, or improving working conditions.

Kate Shoesmith, Deputy Chief Executive of REC, said: “Our analysis shows that labour and skills shortages could cost the UK economy up to £39 billion per year from 2024 – around the same as two Elizabeth lines. Government and business must reach out and help those furthest away from the labour market into work if we are to fill new job vacancies – which our own data shows hit a 14-month high in February.

“Firms can also step up on how they employ and engage. The government can help business by taking the big opportunity in the Budget tomorrow to provide clarity and stability on its growth plans. It is a big test for the Chancellor on skills, transport and tax. We need to see creative and revitalised policies on tackling economic inactivity, from rethinking low-skilled immigration policy to support for the over 50s.”

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Employers advised to revisit their skills requirements and train people on the job

The UK labour market is looking buoyant with the Net Employment Outlook rising to +21%. The latest number is up two 2% since last quarter but down 10% on Q2 2022. This is according to the latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey.

With record low unemployment and a historically tight labour market, employers are still struggling to attract skilled talent. In response, workers can’t find employers that fit their pay and skills needs. ManpowerGroup suggests that employers revisit their essential skills requirements and consider what can be learned on the job.

In the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, 2,020 UK employers were questioned about whether they intend to hire additional workers, maintain their current headcount, or reduce the size of their workforce in the next quarter (April to June 2023). The survey is a key economic indicator by the Bank of England and the UK Government.

The report revealed that employers across all sectors are planning to increase headcount. The IT sector tops the list, with a Net Employment Outlook of +48%, an increase of 14% from last quarter and 8% up on Q2 2022. The figures for the IT industry are more than twice the national average Net Employment Outlook.

Next on the list are:

  • Communication Services (+36%)
  • Transport, Logistics, and Automotive (+27%)
  • Financials & Real Estate (+27%)

Regionally, East Midlands is in the lead with a Net Employment Outlook of +29%, up 23% from last quarter, followed by the South West (+26%) and London (+24%).

Chris Gray, Director at ManpowerGroup UK, commented: “Our survey continues to show strong hiring intentions despite the economic climate, but hiring intentions are not translating into filled vacancies.”

 “There is a mismatch between what workers want and what employers are offering. Employers across the country are still keen to take on new talent, and workers want to take on higher paying roles with greater development opportunities. However, they aren’t seeing these jobs advertised. Job descriptions are going unread because they aren’t offering the skills growth workers want. Employers need to be clear about the progression opportunities and the training they are providing.”

“In a time of economic uncertainty and a cost-of-living crisis, we’re seeing that existing employees are reticent to move to new jobs and would rather take on more over-time or a second or third job to make ends meet and continue to develop. We have to be looking to bring those inactive back into the workplace and this requires structural changes to make this a realistic option. Government has an opportunity in this week’s Budget to help make this happen – an improved childcare offer and support for over 50s and long term sick could make a real difference.”

“Demand for highly-skilled tech talent continues to grow and we see this across all sectors. This growth is positive for workers, as businesses continue to deliver today while transforming for the workplace of tomorrow. This growth has a knock-on effect as new and different roles emerge, from project and change managers to newly skilled production workers. The opportunities are numerous as British industry works on future-proofing itself. To meet the demand, employers must re-evaluate what is essential and what is desirable in a candidate, and consider whether the role could be filled with a candidate who is 60 to 70 per cent fit for the role, and could be trained for the future.”

 “We are encouraged to see demand for workers the length and breadth of the UK – employers in all regions plan to expand headcounts. This is true especially of the East Midlands, which has seen hiring optimism surge since last quarter. Our insights tell us that a great deal of this demand stems from small and medium sized businesses which continue their optimistic streak in the region.”

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However, the sector is at its lowest rate since June 2020

According to the Institute for supply Management report the “Manufacturing ISM Report on Business” the US manufacturing sector grew in August at the same rate as in July — which was the lowest rate in more than two years. While employment in manufacturing picked up, concerns about a slowing economy have remained.

The Manufacturing PMI report is based on a survey of manufacturing supply executives.

Overall, the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI’s reading of 52.8% in both August and July was the lowest level since its 52.4% reading in June 2020. Readings above 50% indicate expansion in the US manufacturing sector.

August’s reading also indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 27th month in a row after contracting in April and May 2020, said Timothy Fiore, chair of the ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

Respondents noted price expansion eased dramatically; however, they continued to express unease about a softening economy.

Employment was a bright spot.

The measure of employment in the report returned to expansion in August after three months of contractions. It was at a reading of 54.2% in August, up from 49.9% in July. Readings above 50.5% over time is generally consistent with an increase in US Bureau of Labor Statistics data on manufacturing employment.

Timothy Fiore, Chair of the ISM’s Manufacturing Business Survey Committee commented: “According to Business Survey Committee respondents’ comments, companies continued to hire at strong rates in August, with few indications of layoffs, hiring freezes or head-count reductions through attrition. Panelists reported lower rates of quits, a positive trend.”

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Unemployment rate hits record low

According to Statistics Canada, employment in Canada fell by 43,200 jobs in June from the previous month, the first decline since January and fully offsetting the increase of 39,800 recorded in May. This marks the first employment decline not associated with a tightening of public health restrictions since the beginning of the pandemic.

The agency indicated the employment loss in June from May was almost entirely due to a decrease of 51,000 jobs among workers aged 55 and older; there was little change in total job numbers among youth aged 15 to 24 and the core-age population aged 25 to 54.

The numbers came as a surprise to economists, who had been expecting the economy to add about 20,000 jobs during the month, CBC reported.

Positively however, Canada’s unemployment rate fell 0.2 percentage points in June to a new record low of 4.9% — the lowest rate since comparable data became available in 1976 — as fewer people looked for work. Total employment in Canada was 19.6 million in June.

June’s employment decline was driven by losses in part-time jobs, which fell by 39,100. Full-time employment fell by 4,000. Self-employment declined, while the number of employees in both the public and the private sectors held steady.

Jobs fell by 76,000 in the services-producing sector with losses spread across several industries, including retail trade. However, the goods-producing sector saw an increase of 33,000 jobs in June, with gains in construction and manufacturing.

Average hourly wages for employees increased 5.2%, or C$1.54, on a year-over-year basis in June to $31.24, compared with a year-over-year increase of 3.9%, C$1.18, in May.

By province, employment decreased in Newfoundland and Labrador and Quebec, while there were gains in Prince Edward Island and Manitoba.

Looking at just Ontario, the number of jobs fell by 24,700 to a total of more than 7.7 million. The province gained 27,900 full-time jobs but lost 52,500 part-time jobs. Ontario’s unemployment rate fell to 5.1% in June from 5.5% in May.

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Employment trends index shows slowdown in positive job growth

Following the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly employment bulletin report, the Conference Board Employment Trends Index was released on 6 June 2022. The employment index indicated a slowdown in job growth in the months ahead.

Despite job growth remaining positive, the measure moved downward from a reading of 120.60 in April to 119.77 in May.

Sectors involving leisure and hospitality as well as in-person services have not yet completely recovered from their Covid-linked job losses. However, with consumers likely to move from spending on goods to services, these industries will likely see some employment growth.

Agron Nicaj, Associate Economist at The Conference Board, commented: “The labor market may have less room for more growth with overall employment down only 0.5% compared to the pre-pandemic level.”

“The labor market remains strong amid high inflation, and the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its focus on stabilizing prices as a result,” but “a strong response by the Fed risks higher unemployment rates by the end of 2022.”

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London has the highest hiring demand despite increased cost of living

The latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey has found that employers in the UK plan to increase headcount massively in the third quarter of this year. Based on responses from 2,030 UK employers, the survey looks at intentions for increasing, maintaining, or reducing workforce numbers in the next quarter.

Despite aggressively recruiting in the months post-pandemic, businesses are still struggling to fill vacancies.

According to the survey, UK’s employment outlook has tripled in the last 12 months. The Q3 outlook has reached a new high of +35%. This is a 22%-point increase from the third quarter of 2021.

The survey found that:

  • Banking, finance, insurance, and property are at the top of the list, increasing by 14% since the last quarter to +49%
  • London employers are also the most optimistic, increasing 10% in hiring confidence, moving up to +41%
  • The IT and technology industries are similarly committed to recruitment, increasing by 7% to +49% in the next three months
  • Manufacturing employers are also high on the list – the hiring intent is up by 27% to +38%
  • The hospitality sector was down by 9% to +25%.

Chris Gray, UK Director at ManpowerGroup, says: “These record hiring plans demonstrate the continuation of an employment trend, which sees businesses keeping their feet firmly on the gas, despite the familiar challenges with the UK labour market. Despite a shrinking workforce and with a large proportion of inactive workers, employers are still keen to recruit fresh talent to help them deliver their services, and to surf the wave of growth for as long as possible.

“We are seeing an active labour force confident enough to switch employers in the search for higher salaries, across both permanent and temporary categories. This is being driven by the rising cost of living and the need to chase higher wages to combat a dwindling disposable income. Demand for staff still outstrips supply, so the choice for candidates remains plentiful.

“On the other hand, we are seeing businesses work hard to bring in new talent but struggling to retain existing employees. Companies find themselves caught between a rock and hard place, in an effort to strike a balance between hiring new talent and being mindful of the needs and pressures felt by their existing employees.”

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New research reveals which jobs are at risk

According to new research, 37% of employees believe that their current job is threatened by automation and digital transformation. Based on survey results of over 1,000 UK workers, HR software provider CIPHR has released a list of the occupations that are the most and least likely to be replaced by technology or machines.

In the survey, respondents were asked to rate the likelihood that their occupation could become automated. Thirty-three percent of women and 43% of men believe that it is very likely that automation could replace their jobs. Further findings revealed that 54% of respondents aged 18 – 24 believe that their jobs may not exist in the future compared to 27% of those over 45.

To measure how closely people’s perceptions were to the likelihood of automation making people’s jobs redundant, CIPHR compared the survey results to a report Office for National Statistics (ONS). Across all the occupations included in the study, the findings showed a notable difference between workers’ perceptions and ONS researchers’ predictions.

A significant number of people vastly underestimated or overestimated the probability of their work becoming automated, suggesting a misconception about which jobs and associated tasks are susceptible to automation.

According to the research, 60% or more of jobs such as kitchen and catering assistants, cleaners, and sales and retail assistants are at risk of automation. Still, many people in these roles believe that the likelihood of this happening is relatively low.

Of the jobs considered to have a low risk of automation (30% or less), such as nursing, IT directors, and accounting, many people doing these jobs fear that their roles are at risk.

The research showed that, on average, people in more labour-intensive, non-desk based roles are more likely to underestimate the impact of automation (69%) than desk-based workers (49%).

There were similar results findings when looking at salaries. Many more people earning over £40,000 a year are more likely to overestimate the likelihood of automation taking over their jobs compared to employees earning under £31,285 (76% vs 29%).

The occupations with the smallest difference between perception and probability included:

  • Human resource managers and directors (29% think their job is likely to be automated)
  • IT user support technicians (27%)
  • Programmers and software development professionals (27%)
  • Restaurant and catering managers and proprietors (38%)
  • Bookkeepers, payroll managers and wages clerks (55%)

Claire Williams, Chief People Officer at CIPHR, comments: “Almost every industry has been transformed in some way by technology. And while digitalisation and automation have brought many positive benefits to organisations, such as improved efficiencies and productivity, streamlined processes, and reduced costs and timesaving, there is still much uncertainty about how it will impact people’s jobs in the long term.

“The challenge is to get the right balance of technology and people. Employees need to feel valued, that their roles have been enhanced by technology rather displaced by it. People often underestimate the human skills that they bring to their roles – the many parts of their jobs that can’t easily be replaced by algorithms and AI. The workplace and job roles will continue to evolve with technology, so employers need to consider the best ways to upskill and reskill their existing employees to keep up with these changes – making sure that they have the capacity, skills and capabilities to do their jobs and progress in their careers.”

Based on the survey results, many employees are unprepared for the changes ahead in their working lives. But even if occupations can become fully automated, it doesn’t mean they will. Instead, more than likely, roles will evolve, and new roles will be created.

 

 

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RefuAid offers English language tuition to clients

A consortium made up of a number of UK-based employers, brought together by entrepreneur Emma Sinclair, MBE has pledged resettlement support to those who have fled the conflict in Ukraine. The scheme will offer language support as well as jobs to refugees arriving in the UK.

Most skilled professions require intensive English language tuition and UK re-accreditation to practice, which usually involves undertaking exams and/or further training. This process is prohibitively expensive for those who have sought sanctuary in the UK and is time consuming. The purpose of the scheme’s providing language support will largely speed up this process.

Companies such as FDM plc, PageGroup plc, PWC and Portman Dental Group are each sponsoring 50 RefuAid clients to learn English language and receive resettlement support. Sponsors will not have the right to employ the clients at the end of their courses.

Over 120 large companies (and many smaller ones) have engaged and have expressed interest in joining the consortium. Some of these businesses are: Caffe Nero, Capital One, Domino’s Pizza, Dunelm, Mitie, Mondalez, Nando’s, Northumbrian Water, Sodexho, Speedy Services, Wincanton, WPP and many more. Many are announcing other initiatives in support such as The AA and WH Smiths.

Emma Sinclair, MBE commented: “My father’s side of the family came from Ukraine, fleeing pogroms and persecution. It is not surprising – but very uplifting – to see how quickly business has stepped up to fill an urgent gap in light of the Ukrainian crisis. There is an overwhelming desire to help refugees resettle and have meaningful lives, finding employment commensurate with experience.

“The slow, bureaucratic process to set up a life in the UK needs to be sped up. This launch initiative is the first step towards significantly accelerating the pace that the United Kingdom can do that – and do that better. A second large wave of supporters has already been assembled and we will shortly be ready to expand the programme. I hope through this consortium that we are seeing the beginning of much needed blue print for how to help refugees arriving on our shores to lead dignified independent lives, for all our benefit.”

Kevin Ellis, Chairman and Senior Partner at PwC, made comment: “A profession is part of someone’s identity – we want to use our strengths as a training business to support refugees into the right work for them. This is a no-brainer for businesses looking for talented people, and we’re delighted to work with other businesses to get moving on this important pilot which aligns with our existing activities to support refugees.”

Steve Ingham, CEO at PageGroup commented: “With over 40 years’ experience of changing lives, we will continue to use our expertise to create opportunities. Being part of the Business.Consortium allows us to provide talent to UK businesses that are crying out for skilled employees as well as break down entry barriers to employment for the Ukrainian refugees.”

Rod Flavell, CEO, FDM Group also commented: “We are very excited to be joining forces with the other businesses to offer job opportunities to Ukrainian refugees. Last year FDM recruited over 2,500 new joiners into our permanent workforce. We are looking to hire in excess of that number in 2022 so we are open minded as to numbers.”  

Anna Jones, CEO, RefuAid: “Forced migration is one of the leading issues of our generation. Whilst governments must be called upon to provide safe and legal routes to sanctuary more support is needed to enable people to rebuild their lives in the new communities they find themselves. This consortium displays the amazing capacity businesses and the third sector have to create change by working together to support people and RefuAid are thrilled to be a part of it.

If you’d like to join the Business.Consortium please contact Emma Sinclair, MBE.

 

 

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